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Aging into the 21st Century
Introduction
American society has been aging rather steadily from its beginning
if we judge on the basis of the usual measures (i.e., the rise
in the median age of the population and the rise in the percent
of the population aged 65 years and over). The rate of aging has
varied over the decades, primarily as a result of fluctuations
in the rate of decline in the birth rate; second, as a result
of fluctuations in the rates and patterns of decline in age-specific
death rates; and third, as a result of shifts in the volume and
age pattern of net immigration. Although this trend has been relatively
regular up to now, for the first time in our history the United
States population is not aging (that is, the proportion of persons
65 years and over is not rising), but it is expected to resume
aging after the year 2000.
Many areas of public life will be greatly affected by the aging
of the baby-boom cohorts. The baby-boom cohorts, the very large
numbers of children born between 1946 and 1964, begin to turn
age 60 about 2006 and age 65 about 2011. The current concern about
the aging of our population arises from three new conditions,
linked closely to one another. The first condition is that the
proportion of elderly in the total population is now substantial
(13 percent). The second is that the number of elderly and the
rate of aging are expected soon to increase steeply, with implications
for a vast increase in the numbers of persons requiring special
services (health, recreation, housing, nutrition, and the like);
participating in various entitlement programs; and requiring formal
and informal care. The third is a recognition of the possible
implications of an aging society for the whole range of our social
institutions, from education and family to business and government.
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